Housing Data
Australia is building at 84% of the pace the National Housing Accord requires. 189,536 households have been assessed, found eligible, and are still waiting. The same $1B that built 3,226 social homes in 2019 builds only 1,786 today. These are the numbers that cut through the announcements — the real-time state of supply, demand, costs, and sector capacity. All sourced from primary data.
Last updated: May 2026
On Social Housing Waitlists
189,536
Households on public housing waitlists, all states (RoGS, Jun 2025)
Households in Rental Stress
1.31M
42% of all renters paying >30% of income on rent
Unmet Housing Requests 2024–25
129,000
~350 people turned away every day · +17% vs 2023–24
Annual Dwelling Approvals
202,257
84% of 240,000 Accord target · 37,743 short~12,000 of these (~6%) are social or affordable — varies by state (NSW 3.8%, VIC 9.8%, QLD 3.5%)
Who Needs Housing — The Affordability Crisis
Rental stress = paying more than 30% of household income on rent. The chart shows it concentrates overwhelmingly at the bottom of the income scale — and the market cannot fix this.
Households in Rental Stress
1.31M
42% of all renter households nationally
In Severe Stress (>50% income on rent)
640k
21% of all renters — no buffer for any other expense
Core Housing Need (AHURI 2023)
640k
Cannot afford adequate housing without assistance
Rental Stress % by Household Income Quintile — ABS Survey of Income & Housing 2021–22
🐝 HIVE AnalysisThe chart tells a story of concentrated crisis at the bottom. 83% of Q1 households — those earning under $25k/year — are in rental stress, paying a median rent of $600/week against an affordable threshold of $144/week. This isn't marginal stress; it's structural. Even Q2 households (20th–40th percentile) face a 55% stress rate. Only the top 40% of earners have broadly escaped rental stress — which means the 1.31 million households in stress represent the unambiguous case for social and affordable housing investment. The market cannot solve this: no private developer builds housing affordable enough for Q1–Q2 incomes at a $600/week market rent vs a $144/week affordable threshold.
Homelessness & Housing Demand — The Human Cost
How many people sought help each year, how many went unassisted, and — crucially — how few of those who needed long-term housing actually received it.
Specialist Homelessness Services — Annual Trend (AIHW)
🐝 HIVE Analysis — Two Ways to Count Unmet Need
Client-based series · AIHW SHS Collection
Tracks unique clients each year — one person counted once regardless of how many times they sought help. Used for the historical trend 2016–2024-25.
In 2024–25: 289,000 clients served · 160,000 needed housing · 46,500 received it
In 2024–25: 289,000 clients served · 160,000 needed housing · 46,500 received it
Requests-based measure · AIHW Unassisted Requests
Counts every service request that couldn't be met — including multiple attempts by the same person. Captures the volume of pressure on the system.
In 2024–25: 129,000 unmet requests — around 350 unassisted requests every single day
In 2024–25: 129,000 unmet requests — around 350 unassisted requests every single day
Which number we use: The bar chart uses the client-based series for year-on-year consistency. The KPI card uses 129,000 (AIHW Requests) — the most current measure and the number AIHW leads with.
2024–25 Outcomes — The Unmet Housing Gap
Sought help289,000 · 100%
Needed housing160,000 · 55%
Got housing46,500 · 16%
🐝 HIVE AnalysisOf everyone who came to an SHS agency, 55% needed long-term housing — not just a referral. Of those, only 16% received it — roughly 3 in 10. The gap between orange and green is people who were assessed, found eligible, and still sent away. That is the supply shortage, measured directly.
The unmet housing gap:
In 2024–25, 160,000 people came to SHS agencies specifically needing long-term housing.
Only 46,500 received it. That means 113,500 people left without housing — a 71% unmet rate driven directly by insufficient social and community housing stock.
In 2024–25, 160,000 people came to SHS agencies specifically needing long-term housing.
Only 46,500 received it. That means 113,500 people left without housing — a 71% unmet rate driven directly by insufficient social and community housing stock.
Housing Supply — Are We Building Enough?
The gold line is the 12-month rolling average — the real trend. The blue line is monthly approvals. The red dashed line is the 20,000/month pace needed to hit the Accord target. Important: these are total approvals across all tenure types — private, investor, social, and affordable. Social and affordable housing represents approximately 6% of this total (~12,000/yr nationally), but ranges from 3.5% in QLD to 9.8% in VIC (elevated by the Big Housing Build program).
Monthly Dwelling Approvals — ABS 8731.0
🐝 HIVE AnalysisThe gold trend line tells the real story: Australia's rolling 12-month average has been stuck well below the 20,000/month Accord target for years, with no meaningful upward trajectory. The blue line's volatility — spikes and dips — reflects how sensitive private construction is to RBA interest rate decisions, but rate cycles don't change the underlying capacity constraint. Despite a 0.9% year-on-year uptick, at this pace Australia will deliver roughly 1010k homes over the 5-year Accord period — against a target of 1.2 million. The cumulative shortfall: ~190k dwellings that won't be built. Critically, the Accord target counts all housing — private, investor, social, and affordable. Against ~198k annual approvals, the net national gain in social housing stock was just ~6,000 dwellings in 2023-24 (AIHW: 446,000 → 452,000) — roughly 3% of the pipeline. The share of all households in social housing has slid from 4.7% (2013) to 4.1% (2024). Virtually everything else being built will never be accessible to the 640,000 households in core housing need, regardless of how many homes are approved.
Supply Gap at a Glance
What this means:
At current pace, Australia will deliver roughly 1010k homes over 5 years — against a target of 1.2 million.
At current pace, Australia will deliver roughly 1010k homes over 5 years — against a target of 1.2 million.
Social Housing Waitlists — The Queue Getting Longer
Each line is approved applicants waiting for social housing in each state. A rising line means the sector is losing ground. NSW alone has over 61,000 households on the register.
Public Housing Waitlist by State (2019–2025)
🐝 HIVE AnalysisThe national public-housing waitlist hit a decade high of 189,536 households at June 2025 — up from 168,552 a year earlier (+12%) and 140,578 in 2018. NSW carries the largest absolute burden (59,077), with VIC close behind (56,230) and QLD jumping 28% in a single year (18,818 → 24,112). These are households formally assessed as eligible — not rough estimates of need. And average wait times have grown from 4 years to 8+ years in some states. For community housing providers, every upward-sloping line is a confirmed tenant pipeline. Measure notes: RoGS 2026 Table 18A.29, public housing program, households at 30 June. SOMIH waitlists are separate (17,478 households nationally, Table 18A.31). Community housing has no national waitlist aggregate — integrated registers mean program lists can't be added without double-counting. QLD's register is ~99.6% "greatest need" because its eligibility rules restrict entry to priority households — not directly comparable to other states. Pre-2024 history shown for NSW only (AIHW-verified); other states' earlier years await source verification.
HAFF Pipeline — Is the Government's Housing Program Delivering?
The Housing Australia Future Fund committed $10B. Grants fund both social and affordable homes built by CHPs. Target: 40,000 homes by 2024–2029.
Homes Announced (Rounds 1–3)
18,650
47% of the 40,000 five-year target · 21,350 remaining
Social vs Affordable Split
50% social
9,284 social · 9,366 affordable
Est. Upfront Grant per Home (HIVE)
$89k
HIVE estimate — HA publishes no instrument split. Official: $14.0B all-instruments across 285 projects
HAFF Homes by State — Social vs Affordable (Rounds 1–3 combined)
🐝 HIVE AnalysisThree rounds have announced 18,650 homes — 47% of the 40,000-home five-year target. But the critical distinction: only ~1,100 homes have been completed to date (sector estimate, May 2026 — HA publishes no completions split). Around 9,000 are under construction; the rest are in planning, procurement, or pre-contract. HAFF is designed as gap funding, not full project finance — the ~$89k HIVE-estimated upfront grant component covers roughly 15–40% of total development cost (HA publishes no instrument split; its full 25-yr support runs ~$751k/home across all instruments). CHPs must stack Housing Australia concessional loans, state government contributions, land, and rental cross-subsidy to make each project viable. NSW and VIC dominate by volume — reflecting both population scale and CHP sector maturity. Against 640,000 households in core housing need, 18,650 contracted homes represents 2.9% of evidenced need — essential momentum, but Rounds 4 and 5 are needed just to reach the 40,000 target, and the target itself barely scratches the surface of the structural deficit.
Construction Cost Impact — What the Same Dollar Builds Now vs 2019
Since COVID, construction costs have risen 58%. The same $1B that built 3521 homes in 2019 now builds only 2222 — a loss of 1299 homes per billion invested.
PPI Construction Cost Index — ABS Cat. 6427.0 (2019 Q1 = 100)
Homes per $1B in 2019
3,521
At ~$284k/dwelling (2019, index back-cast)
Homes per $1B in 2025
2,222
At ~$450k/dwelling — 58.5% higher cost
Homes Lost per $1B
−1,299
Every billion invested buys 1299 fewer homes than pre-COVID
🐝 HIVE AnalysisThe cost index reached 158.5 by early 2025 — 58% above the 2019 baseline — meaning it costs nearly 60% more to build the same home as pre-COVID. For CHPs, this is a direct viability threat: construction budget assumptions from 2021–22 feasibility studies are systematically understating costs by 30–40%. The peak was driven by three compounding shocks: COVID supply chain disruptions, the global materials shortage, and the simultaneous HomeBuilder-induced construction surge that exhausted trade capacity across Australia. Costs have stabilised but not retreated — the new floor is ~$550–580k per social apartment. Any government program that sets grant levels based on 2019–2020 cost assumptions is underfunded before it starts.
CHP Sector Capacity — Growth Story With a Ceiling
Community housing has grown 74% in 11 years — while public housing has shrunk. The sector is absorbing responsibility without proportional government investment.
CHP-Managed Properties
119k
Up from 67k in 2013 — 77% growth in 12 years
Share of Social Housing Stock
25%
Up from 16% in 2013 · public housing now 66% and declining
Registered CHPs (NHR)
760
45 Tier 1 (large) · sector rapidly consolidating
Social Housing Stock: Community Housing Growth vs Public Housing Decline (2013–2023)
🐝 HIVE AnalysisThe diverging lines tell the structural story of Australian housing policy over a decade. Public housing has declined from 328k dwellings (2013) to ~297k (2025) — state governments have divested, transferred (NSW alone moved ~10,700 properties to CHPs in 2018-19), and under-maintained stock. Community housing has grown from 67k to 119k, absorbing much of that divested stock and adding new supply through HAFF, NHHA, and state programs. But here's the ceiling: the sector's growth depends entirely on government grants and concessional debt. Without a sustained pipeline — HAFF rounds 4, 5, and beyond — the growth curve flattens. The 640,000 households in core housing need cannot be served by 119k properties. The sector needs to be 5.4x its current size to meet evidenced need.
The Gap at a Glance — Need vs Response
Every section above feeds into this question: how far does the current policy response go toward closing the structural housing deficit?
Housing Response vs Evidenced Need — Proportional Scale (640,000 = 100%)
Core housing need (AHURI/City Futures, 2021 Census)640,000 · 100%
Households who cannot afford adequate housing without assistance — rises to ~940k by 2041
Public housing waitlist — households (RoGS 2026, Jun 2025)189,536 · 30%
Decade high — assessed, eligible, waiting. A further 17,478 households are on SOMIH lists (overlap with public lists possible — not simply addable); community lists are integrated
HAFF homes contracted — Rounds 1–218,650 · 3%
Contracts signed or in execution — Round 3 (target +21,350) still in application phase
HAFF homes completed to date (est. May 2026)1,100 · 0%
Sector estimate — HA publishes contracts (279) and homes (18,650) but no completions split. Early Round 1 projects only
Housing System Scorecard
Rental affordability
42% of renters in stress · 83% in lowest income quintile
Housing supply vs Accord target
84% of target · trend flat for 18+ months
Social housing waitlists
All states & territories rising · average wait now 4–8+ years
HAFF delivery pipeline
47% of 40k target announced · construction underway
CHP sector capacity
119k properties · growing but entirely grant-dependent
Construction cost environment
Stabilised at 58% above 2019 — new floor, not retreating
What Would It Actually Take?
To house 640,000 households in core need — at $89k average HAFF grant per home (Rounds 1–2 contracted):
Close the gap in 10 years
64,000 homes/year
$5.7B/year in grants · 13× current HAFF annual grant capacity
Close the gap in 20 years
32,000 homes/year
$2.9B/year in grants · 6.4× current HAFF annual grant capacity
At current HAFF pace (~5,000/yr)
5,000 homes/year
~$445M/year · 128 years to close core housing need at this rate
🐝 HIVE AnalysisThe data across this dashboard tells one consistent story: Australia faces a structural housing deficit, not a cyclical one. The 1.31 million households in rental stress and 129,000 unmet requests per year are symptoms of the same cause — a social housing stock of ~452k dwellings serving a core need of 640k households. HAFF is the largest federal housing investment in decades, and it matters: 18,650 contracted homes, construction underway, first completions arriving. But 2.9% of evidenced need is momentum — not a solution. What closes the gap is a decade-long, sustained pipeline: HAFF rounds 4, 5, 6, 7, 8; rising CHP balance sheets enabling concessional debt at scale; and state government land contributions reducing the grant burden per home. The community housing sector has the governance, the delivery track record, and the capacity to absorb investment at pace. The constraint is not sector capacity — it is the political commitment to fund at the scale the evidence demands.
Sources: ABS Building Approvals Cat. 8731.0 (monthly) · AIHW SHS Annual Report 2024–25 · ABS Survey of Income and Housing 2021–22 (rental stress) · Housing Australia HAFF Round 1 & 2 media releases · ABS PPI Cat. 6427.0 (construction costs) · AIHW Housing Assistance in Australia 2023 (sector stock) · National Housing Register 2024. Updated May 2026.