Population & Supply Gap
Ten years of actual population history, the COVID migration shock and its housing impact, evidence-based projections to 2044, and the policy positions the sector needs to advocate.
Sources: ABS Cat. 3101.0 (historical), ABS Cat. 3412.0 (migration), ABS Cat. 3222.0 (projections, Series B), SQM Research, CoreLogic
Ten Years of Population Growth — What Actually Happened
Population 2015
23.78M
Population 2024
27.22M
+3.44M over 10 years
Peak NOM (2023)
518k
Record — 2× pre-COVID average
COVID trough (2021)
-84k
Net outflow — first time since 1946
National Population & Net Overseas Migration — 2015 to 2024
ABS Cat. 3101.0 & 3412.0 — annual June-year figures
Four Phases of Migration — and What Each Did to Housing
Pre-COVID steady state — 2015–2019 · avg 215k/yr
Australia's NOM averaged 215,000 per year — high by historical standards but absorbed into an economy and housing market growing in parallel. Inner-city rental markets were tight but the system was in equilibrium.
Housing market impact
Vacancy rates 2–3%. Rents rising moderately at CPI+2%. Social housing waitlists growing slowly. Construction running at ~200,000/yr.
COVID collapse — 2020–2021 · avg 55k/yr
International borders slammed shut in March 2020. NOM crashed from +239,000 to −84,000 over two years — a swing of 323,000 people. Temporary visa holders left. International students departed.
Housing market impact
Paradoxically, some capital city vacancy rates rose as students and workers departed (Melbourne CBD briefly hit 8% vacancy). Regional and coastal markets boomed as Australians relocated with remote work.
Reopening surge — 2022–2023 · avg 344k/yr
Borders reopened in stages from mid-2021. By 2023, NOM hit a record 518,000 — more than double the pre-COVID average. Three factors compounded: pent-up student demand, accelerated skilled migration, and humanitarian programs.
Housing market impact
National rental vacancy hit 1.0% in 2023 — the lowest since records began. Perth vacancy: 0.4%. Brisbane: 0.7%. Median rents rose 10–15% in a single year.
Managed moderation — 2024–2025 · avg 340k/yr
Government has tightened student visa processing and proposed university enrolment caps. NOM is declining but remains above the pre-COVID average. The structural imbalance — population growing faster than housing supply — has not resolved.
Housing market impact
Vacancy recovering slowly toward 1.5–2.0%. Rent growth slowing but from a 35% higher base than 2019. Social housing waitlists remain at record levels.
State Population Growth — 2015 to 2024 (M)
Migration Breakdown by Visa Stream — 2015 to 2024 (000s)
ABS Series B Projections to 2044
NSW — to 2041
10.05M
from 8.35M today
Strong net overseas migration, internal migration from VIC/QLD, concentrated in ...
VIC — to 2041
8.6M
from 7.05M today
Highest internal migration gain nationally, strong NOM recovery post-COVID. Grow...
QLD — to 2041
7.2M
from 5.72M today
Fastest-growing state by net internal migration. South East Queensland absorbed ...
WA — to 2041
3.82M
from 3.02M today
Resources sector driving NOM and skilled migration. Perth land release constrain...
SA — to 2041
2.12M
from 1.86M today
Lower growth than eastern states. Defence and energy sector investment driving s...
Policy Advocacy Positions
Increase the National Housing Accord target
The current 1.2M/5-year target (240,000/yr) is based on 2022 population assumptions. With NOM running at 400,000+ per year, the required build rate is closer to 300,000–320,000 per year.
Evidence: ABS 3222.0 Series B projects 7.3M additional people to 2041 — requiring approximately 3.0M additional dwellings at current household size. Current trajectory delivers approximately 1.9M.
Mandate inclusionary zoning at 15% minimum
All new greenfield and medium-density developments above 50 dwellings should include a minimum 15% social/affordable component as a condition of planning approval.
Evidence: AHURI research (2022) found that inclusionary zoning of 10–15% would add 12,000–18,000 affordable dwellings annually at zero net public cost when combined with density bonuses.
Accelerate Build-to-Rent for affordable tiers
The managed investment trust (MIT) withholding tax concession for Build-to-Rent should be extended to include a mandatory 20% affordable tier (at 75% of market rent).
Evidence: The government's 2023 BTR tax changes were welcomed but AHURI modelling shows they will add fewer than 5,000 dwellings at below-market rents over 10 years without an affordability mandate.
Fast-track planning reform for social housing
State planning approvals for community housing provider developments should be treated as State Significant Development with a 60-day determination target.
Evidence: Power Housing Australia (2024): planning delays are the single largest controllable cost driver in CHP development pipelines, accounting for 22% of total development costs in metropolitan areas.
Establish a Social Housing Futures Fund
A dedicated off-budget fund of $5B (modelled on HAFF but for existing stock renewal) to address the $25B+ deferred maintenance backlog in social housing.
Evidence: UNSW City Futures (2023): the national social housing maintenance backlog is estimated at $26.5B. At current state funding rates, it will take 40+ years to clear.
Tie Commonwealth Rent Assistance to housing CPI
Commonwealth Rent Assistance has not kept pace with rental market increases. Indexing CRA to a rental-specific CPI measure rather than the headline CPI would prevent the effective reduction in support.
Evidence: ACOSS (2024): the real value of CRA has fallen 20% relative to market rents since 2019. Recipients face average rental stress of 67% — spending 2 in every 3 dollars of income on rent.